The Truth About NAR’s Home Sales Numbers
The
National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest
Existing Homes Sales Report
last Friday. The year-over-year comparison of overall sales did not
paint a pretty picture. NAR itself called the sales numbers “subdued”.
Other media sources used stronger terminology.
There is no doubt that home sales were lower this February (4.60
million) than last February (4.95 million). However, a closer look at
the report gives us some evidence as to why that is. Last year, of the
4.95M homes sold, 25% were distressed properties (foreclosures and
short sales). This February, only 16% of
sales were made up of distressed properties.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
Well, if we do the math, we can see that the annualized
number of non-distressed properties
sold which was revealed in the latest report (3,864,000) was actually
greater than the annualized number of non-distressed properties sold
that was reported last year (3,712,500). As we sell-off the ‘shadow
inventory’ of distressed properties, there will be less homes from which
a potential buyer can choose. That will impact sales.
As proof of this point, we can look at the months’ supply of housing
inventory available for purchase. In a normal market, a six month supply
would be optimum. However, we haven’t reached a six month supply once
in over 18 months. This shortage of inventory is the main reason sales
are down.
THE GOOD NEWS
As prices continue to rise, more and more homeowners will be freed
from the shackles of negative or limited equity. This combined with an
improving economy will allow homeowners to again feel confident that
they can sell their homes and move on with their future plans. We are
already starting to see increases in listings coming onto the market
(unsold inventory is 5.3 percent above a year ago). Once housing
inventory reaches normal levels (a 6 months’ supply) we will again see
home sales begin to increase.